I grabbed this season’s results to present and threw them in Excel in order the plot the accuracy by week. On the season so far, the predictions are 290-107 (0.730) straight-up and 202-183-12 (0.509) against-the-spread.
Here’s what weeks 1 through 8 look like:
Weeks 3-6 turned out to be the worst performing weeks (with the exception of week 5′s straight-up accuracy). This isn’t too surprising being that I was dependent on teams’ 2011 statistics through week 5. The predictions made in week 6 were almost totally based on teams’ 2012 stats (with the exception of teams that had early byes and had played only 4 games through 5 weeks).
I’m not expecting much more of an upward trend in the coming weeks, but I do hope the prediction accuracy can stay where it was in week 8, as 84% straight-up and 64% against-the-spread is pretty respectable.
