Below are the results of the week 1 predictions. It went 28-12 straight-up, and 23-16-1 against the spread.
The lines are next to the favored teams, and the prediction results are coded green and red for correct and incorrect predictions, respectively.
EDIT: This has been reformatted to make it easier to read.
| Date | Game (line) | Score | Bodak’s Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-08-30 | Central Florida (-24.5) @ Akron |
56 14 |
Central Florida to win Central Florida to cover |
| 2012-08-30 | Eastern Michigan @ Ball State (-3.0) |
26 37 |
Eastern Michigan to win Eastern Michigan to cover |
| 2012-08-30 | Washington State @ Brigham Young (-13.0) |
6 30 |
Brigham Young to win Brigham Young to cover |
| 2012-08-30 | Massachusetts @ Connecticut (-21.0) |
0 37 |
Connecticut to win Connecticut to cover |
| 2012-08-30 | UCLA (-16.0) @ Rice |
49 24 |
Rice to win Rice to cover |
| 2012-08-30 | Minnesota (-9.5) @ UNLV |
30 27 |
Minnesota to win UNLV to cover |
| 2012-08-30 | South Carolina (-6.5) @ Vanderbilt |
17 13 |
South Carolina to win Vanderbilt to cover |
| 2012-08-31 | Boise State @ Michigan State (-7.5) |
13 17 |
Boise State to win Boise State to cover |
| 2012-08-31 | San Jose State @ Stanford (-24.5) |
17 20 |
Stanford to win Stanford to cover |
| 2012-08-31 | North Carolina State vs Tennessee (-3.0) |
21 35 |
North Carolina State to win North Carolina State to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Troy (-6.0) @ Alabama-Birmingham |
39 29 |
Troy to win Alabama-Birmingham to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Toledo @ Arizona (-10.0) |
17 24 |
Toledo to win Toledo to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Clemson (-2.5) vs Auburn |
26 19 |
Clemson to win Push predicted |
| 2012-09-01 | Miami (FL) (-2.5) @ Boston College |
41 32 |
Miami (FL) to win Miami (FL) to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Nevada @ California (-12.0) |
31 24 |
California to win Nevada to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Colorado (-6.0) vs Colorado State |
17 22 |
Colorado State to win Colorado State to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Florida International @ Duke (-3.0) |
26 46 |
Florida International to win Florida International to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Bowling Green @ Florida (-28.5) |
14 27 |
Florida to win Bowling Green to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Buffalo @ Georgia (-38.0) |
23 45 |
Georgia to win Buffalo to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Texas State @ Houston (-34.5) |
30 13 |
Houston to win Texas State to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Western Michigan @ Illinois (-10.0) |
7 24 |
Illinois to win Western Michigan to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Tulsa (-1.5) @ Iowa State |
23 38 |
Tulsa to win Tulsa to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | North Texas @ LSU (-42.0) |
14 41 |
LSU to win North Texas to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Alabama (-13.5) vs Michigan |
41 14 |
Alabama to win Michigan to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Notre Dame (-14.5) vs Navy |
50 10 |
Notre Dame to win Navy to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Southern Mississippi @ Nebraska (-20.5) |
20 49 |
Southern Mississippi to win Southern Mississippi to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Iowa (-2.5) vs Northern Illinois |
18 17 |
Northern Illinois to win Northern Illinois to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Miami (OH) @ Ohio State (-26.0) |
10 56 |
Ohio State to win Miami (OH) to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Arkansas State @ Oregon (-38.0) |
34 57 |
Oregon to win Arkansas State to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Ohio @ Penn State (-6.0) |
24 14 |
Ohio to win Ohio to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Hawaii @ Southern California (-43.0) |
10 49 |
Southern California to win Hawaii to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Northwestern @ Syracuse (-2.0) |
42 41 |
Northwestern to win Northwestern to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Wyoming @ Texas (-31.0) |
17 37 |
Texas to win Wyoming to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Rutgers (-19.5) @ Tulane |
24 12 |
Rutgers to win Rutgers to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Oklahoma (-30.0) @ UTEP |
24 7 |
Oklahoma to win UTEP to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | San Diego State @ Washington (-16.0) |
12 21 |
San Diego State to win San Diego State to cover |
| 2012-09-01 | Marshall @ West Virginia (-27.0) |
34 69 |
West Virginia to win Marshall to cover |
| 2012-09-02 | Southern Methodist @ Baylor (-10.5) |
24 59 |
Baylor to win Southern Methodist to cover |
| 2012-09-02 | Kentucky @ Louisville (-14.0) |
14 32 |
Louisville to win Kentucky to cover |
| 2012-09-03 | Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (-7.0) |
17 20 |
Virginia Tech to win Georgia Tech to cover |
A few post-scripts …
Between the time I originally posted the week 1 predictions and these results, I updated my scripts to allow predictions to be in increments of half-points (similar to betting lines).
If the prediction matched the line (eg: the Clemson/Auburn game), I count it as a push against the spread.
All-in-all, not a bad start using data totally reliant on the 2011 season. It will be very interesting to see the performance over the course of the next few months as I transition to using 2012 data. My expectation is that performance will get worse in October, then improve, and then do its best at the end of November.
